Is it really considered chalk if I pick the trendy pick to win the National Title? To be fair I had two #4 seeds going into the National Championship as of 7:02 pm Eastern time (2 minutes after ESPN had their brackets released for available picking) because I was making my picks on the fly and already know everything I need to know when it comes to picking a national championship.
I've picked 3 National Champions in my life (2007 Florida, 2011 Connecticut, 2012 Kentucky), and I use the same 5 criteria to make my championship picks every single year. Let's run through that criteria quickly shall we?
2. Consistency throughout the entire Season
3. How have they played recently (Are they Hot coming in?)
4. Conference Rank
5. Their path through the Tournament
Let's be honest, Sparty has all these except for #2 and that's only because they were injured all season. They have possibly the best talent in the land, they destroyed Michigan in the Big Ten title game who were clearly a top 10 team throughout the year, the Big 10 conference is the best conference in basketball, and their path through the tournament is relatively easy considering they are a 4 seed.
My dad's side of the family lives within 15 minutes of the University of Louisville so I'm partial to picking them as my second #4 seed to make it to the National Title game. The crazy thing is this Louisville team is better than last season I think because Russdiculous is the best player at his position in the country and they have only improved down low with Harrell playing the way he has played.
The other final four teams I have are relatively "Chalk" with Arizona making it, their talent and consistency has been ridiculously good this entire season except as of late in the Pac-12 tournament which should put the Pac-12 at an advantage for how difficult they are with 6 teams getting into the tournament. I also have Syracuse making it even though everybody has been brown nosing Florida for their performance the last 2 months. People easily forget how dominant Syracuse was heading into February (along with Arizona) and that they were #1 at one point this year and they have a cast of talent to take them far in the tournament. They also play in the Big East (which sadly isn't the same, but it's still a difficult conference non the less) and their path through the tournament is pretty nice outside of playing Florida.
I picked Michigan State to win it all! They fit the main 5 criteria pretty easily, and I feel like if they don't get it done, then the other three teams left have the best shot to win it all! Enjoy the Madness!